Get out the Vote

ONE week until Election Day!!

Thanks again to Jonah for co-hosting Saturday’s canvass launch with Indivisible Onondaga County. Rachel May and Fran Conole joined us for the kickoff, we had a great turnout, and those of us using the Minivan canvassing app hit 900+ doors that day. (Some of us were using paper turfs instead, but those haven’t been tallied yet.) The election is just one week away, so we’re reprising the event this Saturday (Nov. 5) at 1:30 pm: https://www.facebook.com/events/1394347878037304

If that day/time doesn’t work for you, you can find other canvassing shifts for this weekend here: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/516630/

For those who are able, in-person door-to-door canvassing is the single most effective voter outreach technique. It’s also, in our experience, the most fun—you get to be outside, you get some exercise, you can do it with a friend, and folks on the doors are generally friendlier than folks on the phone. So for the next week, ignore the polls, spend less time on social media, and knock some doors. If you can’t knock doors, phone-banking and text-banking are good second options. As you’re canvassing, remember to remind folks to flip the ballot over and vote YES on Prop. 1 (which appears on the back).

Regarding the polls, we’ve been hearing from some folks who are discouraged by the media narrative suggesting inevitable Republican victories. Our main advice is to ignore the polls and knock some doors (or make some calls). But if you (like some of us!) find it hard to ignore them, then consider this. Accurate polling in an age of polarized voters who mostly don’t answer calls from unknown numbers is very challenging, even when done by reputable non-partisan pollsters. And lots of the polls being reported in the press are not conducted by reputable non-partisan pollsters. Indeed, this cycle has seen a particularly sharp uptick in GOP-leaning polls conducted frequently to try to game the polling averages.

Midterm elections are always challenging for the incumbent party, but there are lots of positive signs for Dems if you look for them, including the special election results last summer, strong early voting numbers in NYS and elsewhere so far, some good recent poll results in key districts/states (including several from NYT/Siena over the past week), and some GOP held seats that are surprisingly in play (e.g., the OH Senate race).

In our own NY-22, there’s been limited public polling, but one leading statistical forecasting model (fivethirtyeight.com) gives Brandon Williams a 75% chance of winning. That seems very wrong to us, and if the forecasters are wrong here, they may be wrong elsewhere as well. So again, ignore the polls, stay positive, and fight for every vote. Our Saturday canvass launch with Jonah is here, and other canvassing opportunities for this weekend are here.

Early Voting Open Now! Info Here for Onondaga County See this for other surrounding counties.

Tuesday, November 1, 2022: 12:00PM – 8:00PM

Wednesday, November 2, 2022: 12:00PM – 8:00PM

Thursday, November 3, 2022: 10:00AM – 6:00 PM

Friday, November 4, 2022: 10:00AM – 6:00 PM

Saturday, November 5, 2022: 9:00AM – 5:00 PM

Sunday, November 6, 2022: 9:00AM – 5:00 PM

Armond Magnarelli Community Center, McChesney Park. 2300 Grant Boulevard, Syr., NY 13208

Beauchamp Branch Library. 2111 South Salina Street, Syracuse, NY 13205

Camillus Municipal Building (Gym), 4600 West Genesee Street, Syracuse NY 13219

Clay Town Hall Courtroom (Rear Entrance), 4401 Route 31, Clay NY 13041

Dewitt Town Hall Courtroom, 5400 Butternut Drive, East Syracuse NY 13057